Will Sinner Take Over Men's Tennis?

“Break Point”, the Netflix docuseries that was released on the Friday before the Australian Open, continued to pose the question deep in tennis fans’ minds for years: “With the Big 3 dominance fading, who would take over the ATP’s baton?” Let's take a look at one of the personalities who might claim the spotlight in 2023 and beyond.

Sinner has the game to win a Grand Slam.

Jannik Sinner

Sinner has been the name on our lips since 2019, when he ended his season on a high. He made his first ATP semi-final then in Antwerp before lifting the NextGen ATP Finals trophy in Milan, all in a two-month window. This only served as a foreshadowing of future success, highlighted by a showing in the Miami Masters final in 2021 and four Grand Slam quarter-final appearances between 2020 and 2022.

Sinner has become one of the most recognisable forces in the game, and while he first burst onto the scene in Milan, it was Paris that showed the prowess his game truly possessed. Roland Garros 2020 was like no other. Due to the pandemic, the tournament was shifted to autumn. Hence, the conditions for a clay court tournament played outdoors were very different. A cooler clay court would mean that the ball would play heavier on clay. Sinner would take full advantage of these conditions.

Sinner is able to generate easy power on his groundstrokes.

His groundstrokes are quite the marvel, with topspin shots that go deep and are powerful. As he hits each shot, he is able to plant his feet firmly on the court, and generate power by pushing off the ground. This worked really well in those autumn conditions in Paris, where his shots would carry lots of spin, and bite the clay with the power that his shots possess. That level of shotmaking led him to two convincing Top 20 wins, straight sets against David Goffin and four sets against then US Open runner-up Alexander Zverev, all before falling to the king of clay, Rafael Nadal.

As a result of his deadly groundstrokes, Sinner is one of the best returners in the game. The ATP has rated Sinner to have the eighth-best return on Tour, trumping that of Murray, Rublev, and Tsitsipas, just to name a few. His ability to pack a punch by shortening his swing is certainly deadly, setting up points to be finished off on the return of serve, making players prone to be broken by Sinner.

Another massive weapon that many may overlook given his height is his athleticism. Sinner may be fairly tall, being able to hammer aces and service winners due to his height and arm strength, but what may set him apart is his ability to reach many balls. One of the most notable examples was this famous YouTube Short making its waves on the eve of the 2022 National Bank Open in Montreal, where Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz already seemed to go head to head and toe to toe in practice. Both men were outright sliding and getting on their knees just to reach each other’s booming ground strokes.

Of course, there has been a lot of talk about how physical modern professional tennis has become. However, Sinner has shown that he can stand up to the test and hang on with the demands of this sport, and having the athleticism and sheer will to get to each ball could make him one of the most formidable forces on the ATP Tour. That is, of course, given Sinner stays injury-free.

So, what does the future hold for the 21-year-old Italian? I foresee a Grand Slam breakthrough, but it will take time for him to get assimilated to the big stage. His two most recent Slams have seen him challenge the very best for the ultimate prize, but does show that he is still rough around the edges.

Sinner had a match point against Alcaraz in the US Open 2022 but failed to win.

In the two most recent Slam tournaments, Sinner has been billed as a title favourite. However, his US Open run in 2022 was ended by the eventual champion Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. That match saw him squander match point in the fourth set before the young Spaniard overcame Sinner in a five-set, five-hour and 15-minute battle. Likewise, his Australian Open run this year was ended by eventual finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Round of 16. There, he came back from two sets down to level the match at two sets apiece. However, the fifth set saw Tsitsipas charge and eventually break down Sinner’s return games to take the win home in four hours.

It is quite an achievement to be touching the surface of such big breakthroughs, and many would tip their hats off to incredible runs. However, it definitely would sting not being able to eventually break through. Just ask Guillermo Coria, who never recovered from his Roland Garros final loss in 2004. Sinner certainly has paid his dues, and it should be about time for him to reach a massive milestone in his career to avoid the same fate as Coria.

Good news, Sinner fans! He certainly is ready for the big stage. The ATP Tour does rank him sixth in the “Under Pressure” category, above the aforementioned Alcaraz (ranked seventh in the list). He is capable of winning the crucial points. However, he needs to be able to get used to these big stages. I would think a good step would be at the Masters 1000 level. Sinner has made it to the title match in Miami in 2021, losing out to Hubert Hurkacz in two tight sets. A win at this level would undoubtedly prime Sinner for the next big step – a Grand Slam title. Take Daniil Medvedev, who won his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati before reaching his first major final at the 2019 US Open, and then claiming his first major title in New York in 2021.

Jannik Sinner is one of the most solid players on the ATP Tour, there is no doubt, and certainly is ready to take over the torch to lead tennis to new heights. Get over this “big stage” hump, and with his game, I’m sure he will be a force to be reckoned with in years to come.